Advances in Sustainable Energies and Environment

Advances in Sustainable Energies and Environment

Comprehensive Assessment of Solar Cell Technology Localization in Iran: Challenges and Development Strategies

Document Type : Original Article

Author
Renewable Energy Department, Niroo Research Institute (NRI),
Abstract
This study provides a comprehensive assessment of solar cell technology localization in Iran using a multidimensional analytical framework. Employing a mixed-methods approach, the research integrates data from: semi-structured interviews with 37 industrial and academic experts; analysis of photovoltaic sector documents; and systematic review of scientific literature (2010-2024). Findings reveal that first-generation crystalline silicon module assembly and integration have reached Technology Readiness Level (TRL) 8 with over 60% self-sufficiency (calculated as the share of value-added in final module cost captured domestically, excluding imported wafers), though critical value chain segments like polysilicon production remain import-dependent. Second-generation thin-film and third-generation perovskite/quantum dot cells remain in basic research phases at TRL 4 and 2, respectively. SWOT analysis identifies abundant mineral reserves (including 99.99% pure silica) and geographical potential as key strengths for first-generation cells, while reliance on foreign technology and sanctions constitutes major threats. Second-generation technologies face material import dependency, while third-generation technologies suffer from skilled labor shortages and inadequate pilot-scale infrastructure. Using Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), this study proposes three development scenarios, identifying the balanced approach - simultaneously developing crystalline silicon and perovskite technologies - as optimal given Iran's current realities. Consequently, a six-year development roadmap was formulated, prioritizing: completion of the domestic silicon value chain; development of advanced first-generation architectures; and parallel acquisition of third-generation perovskite technology. This trajectory is expected to culminate in tandem solar cell manufacturing capability. The research provides a scientific foundation for renewable energy policymaking in Iran and similar contexts.
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